Task# Valentine Marbles

Illustrative MathematicsVaries

For this task, Minitab software was used to generate 100 random samples of size 16 from a population where the probability of obtaining a success in one draw is 33.6% (Bernoulli). Given that multiple samples of the same size have been generated, students should note that there can be quite a bit of variability among the estimates from random samples and that on average, the center of the distribution of such estimates is at the actual population value and most of the estimates themselves tend to cluster around the actual population value. Although formal inference is not covered in Grade 7 standards, students may develop a sense that the results of the 100 simulations tell them what sample proportions would be expected for a sample of size 16 from a population with about successes. Regarding the last question, students may need some guidance with the devices used for simulation (and if needed, you can consider adjusting the probability of success to if dice or some similar media are used).